Refined Safeguarding

 This was an interesting read about the emotional development of children, written by Niklas Serning and Nina Lyon. The essay was published on aeon.co (link here).

The authors make the following statements regarding the development of children and navigating to adulthood:

1. The Trap of Safetyism. Modern culture leans heavily toward shielding kids from any form of distress, risk, or failure—a mindset that prioritizes total safety over character-building.

2. Learning Adulthood Skills. Practical and emotional skills cannot be handed down through lectures; they are forged when children navigate manageable discomfort, minor physical injuries, or social friction on their own.

3. The Cost of Over-Protection. Children who are overly cosseted often grow into adults who lack autonomy, freeze when facing unpredictable real-world problems, or struggle to cope with independence.

4. Rethinking Care. Real care means allowing things to go wrong in safe, incremental ways ("stepping-stones") so children learn how to fall, get back up, and build genuine self-confidence.

 عاشقان مستند و ما دیوانه ایم

عارفان شمعند و ما پروانه ایم

چون ندارم با خلایق الفتی 

خلق پندارد ما دیوانه ایم

ما زعقل خویشتن بیگانه ایم

لاجرم دُردی كش میخانه ای

در ازل دادند چون جام الست

تا ابد ما مست آن پیمانه ایم 

عوعو سگان: شعری از سیف فرغانی

 هم مرگ بر جهان شما نیز بگذرد         هم رونق زمان شما نیز بگذرد

    وین بوم محنت از پی آن تا کند خراب          بر دولت آشیان شمانیز بگذرد

   باد خزان نکبت ایام ناگهان          بر باغ و بوستان شما نیز بگذرد

آب اجل که هست گلوگیر خاص و عام         برحلق و بر دهان شما نیزبگذرد

  ای تیغتان چو نیزه برای ستم دراز        این تیزی سنان شما نیز بگذرد 

 چون داد عادلان به جهان در بقا نکرد         بیداد ظالمان شما نیز بگذرد

در مملکت چو غرش شیران گذشت و رفت          این عوعو سگان شما نیز بگذرد

آن کس که اسب داشت غبارش فرونشست          گرد سم خران شما نیز بگذرد

بادی که در زمانه بسی شمع ها بکشت         هم بر چراغدان شما نیز بگذرد

  زین کاروانسرای بسی کاروان گذشت          ناچار کاروان شما نیزبگذرد

ای مفتخر بر طالع مسعود خویشتن         تاثیر اختران شما نیز بگذرد

این نوبت از کسان به شما ناکسان رسید         نوبت ز ناکسان شما نیز بگذرد

Iran, January 2026

I shall find you

I will find you

Somehow

Somewhere

Maybe

Entangled with stars!

Or maybe

Hidden in a verse

From the anthology of life!

Pedram

1/23/2026

#iranprotests
#iranmassacre

Vatan

 

Merry Christmas

 

Meditations, VI-26

 If any man should propose to thee the question, how the name Antoninus is written, wouldst thou with a straining of the voice utter each letter? What then if they grow angry, wilt thou be angry too? Wilt thou not go on with composure and number every letter? 

Just so then in this life also remember that every duty is made up of certain parts. These it is thy duty to observe and without being disturbed or showing anger towards those who are angry with thee to go on thy way and finish that which is set before thee.

Meditations, Book VI, Passage 26 

False Prophets: The Hype of Prophecy

 Aka Forecast delusion, the phenomenon of False prophets" is a current issue. From TV personalities to bench experts, we are in the era of experts with crystal balls conjuring up forecasts. I have been grappling with this question of authenticity, methodology, and, more importantly, the rationality of such predictions.

Philip Tetlock, a Canadian-American political psychologist, has examined the accuracy of various forecasts and reported a staggering underwhelming performance. Most of these media darlings only marginally outperform random predictions. This annoying reality is more pronounced amongst the "prophets of doom and disintegration".

According to John Kenneth Galbraith, there are two types of forecasters: those who don't know and those who don't know they don't know.

In the book "The Art of Thinking Clearly", Rolf Dobelli mentions two questions we should ask to distinguish predictions that are noteworthy from a multitude of worthless ones.

First is what is the incentive behind the forecasts? Is there any accountability anywhere in case of off-the-mark predictions? Are we dealing with a relentless machine that makes money based on the number of prophecies it presents? Is a job or status at risk if the forecasts turn out to be failures?

The second solution is the retrospective investigation. What has been the success rate of each expert?

After all, some success rate can be a sign of a more reliable and scientific methodology. 

Pedram

12/18/25