Trade Offs Between Being Smart and Not Being Smart

Humans don't have a monopoly on being smart: many other animals, including birds, can solve problems and even make and use tools.

But does it always pay for animals to be brainy or are there hidden costs?

A recent study of great tits, published in Current Biology, gives an insight into  the trade-offs between problem-solving abilities and other traits. The work was conducted by Ella Cole of Oxford University's Department of Zoology and Julie Morand-Ferron and led by John Quinn. I asked Ella about birds, brains, and strategies…

OxSciBlog: What makes great tits good for studying problem-solving?
Ella Cole: Great tits are well-known for their ability to problem-solve in order to find food, ranking among the top 20 most innovative avian species. This ability to solve novel problems or find new food sources may be one reason why great tits are able to survive in such a variety of different habitats.

In our work with the tits, we try to establish whether good and poor problem solvers differ in how they forage in the wild and how successful they are at reproducing. Our problem solving trials are carried out in captivity under standardised conditions. We therefore need to test large numbers of individuals as we cannot be certain how many birds we will be able to find again once they are released back into the wild.

Great tits are an excellent study species because they can be caught in large numbers, easily adapt to captive conditions and  take to nest boxes allowing us to monitor their foraging behaviour and breeding success in the wild.

OSB: What links did you find between problem-solving and successfully raising offspring?
EC: We found that females that could problem-solve in captivity laid more eggs than their non-solving counterparts when released back into the wild. If their nests did not fail, these solvers also fledged more chicks than non-solvers.

Even though the quality of food fed to chicks did not differ between solvers and non-solvers, solvers had much smaller foraging ranges and foraged for less time each day than non-solvers, suggesting they may be generally more efficient at finding food.

Interestingly though, female problem-solvers were more likely to desert their chicks than non-solving females, leading to no overall fitness difference between solvers and non-solvers. These findings provide the first convincing evidence that problem-solving abilities may influence reproductive success in wild populations.

OSB: What do your results tell us about the costs of being smart?
EC: Our finders suggest there may be costs as well as benefits to being smart. We find that problem solvers are more likely to desert their nests, which is a common adaptive behaviour amongst birds in response to unfavourable conditions.

Although their offspring will die, deserters can preserve their resources for themselves and therefore breed again when conditions may be more favourable. We show that desertion in our population may be a direct response to trapping by field workers – a procedure that is carried out in order to establish the identities of breeding birds (via reading their unique leg bands).

It is likely therefore that solvers may be more sensitive to human interference at the nest (which they are likely to perceive as a predation attempt), indicating that they are generally more cautious or anxious than non-solvers.

Why might 'being smart' not always be the best strategy?
EC: Being smart is costly. In humans, for example, the brain only accounts for 2% of an adult’s body weight, but it consumes about 20% of the resting metabolic rate [Clarke and L. Sokoloff 1999].

As resources are limited in nature, energy spent on the brain must be diverted from something else such as maximising body size and strength. Therefore although in some environments it will pay to be brainy, in others animals may benefit instead by investing resources in being good at competing or fleeing predators.

Whether being smart is favoured by selection is therefore likely to depend on the specific selective pressures acting in a given environment.  In a previous study we showed that problem solver great tits are poorer at competing for limited food resources than non-solvers, and in the current study we find that solvers may also be more timid. These correlations provide support for the idea that trade-offs may exist between problem-solving ability and other traits linked to fitness, and therefore that being smart may not always be the best strategy.

What further studies are needed to explore the link between 'smarts' and 'success' in great tits?EC: Our paper provides an important first step to understanding how selection may act on individual variation in cognitive performance in animal populations. However, more work is needed to understand exactly how being a good problem solver helps animals do well in the wild: for example, are they better at finding novel food sources when most needed, or are they quicker generally at learning to cope with challenges in their environment?

Another useful area of research will be to further explore the costs of being smart. In our paper we show that solvers are more sensitive to disturbance at the nest than non-solvers, leading to high nest failure, but whether they also show a stronger response to natural predation attempts remains to be tested.

Finally, it will also be very interesting and informative to explore how different types of cognitive traits (such as learning ability) relate to fitness, and to test the prediction that the costs of being smart will lead to high cognitive performance only being favoured in environments that are especially cognitively demanding.

by : Pete Wilton

@ox.ac.uk

We'll Kick on From Here

Sir Alex insists United can take “great credit” in the 2011/12 season, despite falling at the final hurdle and in heartbreaking fashion.

The Reds were just minutes away from clinching an unlikely 20th league title... until two injury-time goals at the Etihad Stadium sealed the championship for Manchester City.

Celebrations turned to shock at the Stadium of Light, where United fans had just watched the Reds beat Sunderland 1-0 thanks to a first-half Wayne Rooney goal.

The result meant United finished the season on 89 points and lost the league only on goal difference.

“I think we can take great credit,” Sir Alex told MUTV. “We’ve had to contend with a lot of injuries this season so I’ve had to change the team around a lot. That didn’t always help us.

“I have absolutely no recriminations about our season at all. Yes, there were times we can look back and say we’ve done this wrong or we’ve done that wrong, but 89 points would have won the league in most seasons.

“At the start of the season I said 82 points would probably win it. And we’ve gone seven points ahead of that. It doesn’t matter, though. We’ve lost the league. There’s nothing we can do about it.

“We congratulate Manchester City. Anyone who wins the league deserves to win it because it’s a very difficult league to win.”

The boss, magnanimous in defeat, took a number of positives from United’s final game of the season 

“They’re a good bunch of lads,” he said. “The younger players will remember today. Sometimes a bad experience is even better for you.

“When you have a good character and a certain purpose about you then you shouldn’t fear the future.

“We did our best today and but for their goalkeeper we could have scored seven goals. We hit the post, the bar, their goalkeeper made some fantastic saves. We conducted ourselves in the right way. It was a good level of performance.

“Well done to the players: Sunderland’s not an easy place to come to. They’re very committed, as you expect from a Martin O’Neill team. We came out with a lot of credit.

“For us it’s a challenge and we’re good at challenges. We’ll kick on from here.”
@Manutd.com

Sir Alex : We Were Vindicated

After his side demolished Schalke 6-1 on aggregate in the Champions League semi-final, the jubilant boss said: "It's fantastic for the club (to be in a third final in four years). I've said it many times, we should have done better in Europe over the years.

"I think we're getting closer to that. I think this team can win the cup. I think it's a team full of great desire and determination. These qualities, allied to their ability, will help them at Wembley."

Sir Alex acknowledges that Barcelona - conquerors of United in the respective clubs' last final, in 2009 - are a different prospect to Schalke, indeed to any other team in the world currently.

"I think they (Barcelona) are definitely, without doubt, the team of the moment. There's no question about that. They play fantastic football. It's a pleasure to watch them play. Their semi-final (against Real Madrid) was unfortunate in that we expected a lot better from both sides."

Turning back to his own team, the manager admitted he'd lost some sleep on the eve of Wednesday's win over Schalke, as he pondered his line-up. He made eight changes from the side that started at Arsenal and given the stage of the competition, this was seen in some quarters as a gamble.

"I woke up about four times last night and picked different teams. But they did me proud. When I analysed each individual who was playing, I said to myself, 'This is a Manchester United player. Why can't I play him?' The fact it's a semi-final and such an important game does create a certain bit of doubt in your mind as to whether you're doing the right thing but I'm glad we were vindicated.

"We're in the final now and we'll prepare properly. We've got a big game on Sunday, so let's look forward to that."

Sir Alex recognises, of course, that a European Cup final at Wembley has special meaning for United, given that the Reds first won the biggest prize in club football there back in 1968. Could that be an omen?

"Let's hope so. This club has created destiny many times and its fate follows things like that."

@Manutd.com

Interview:Heartbeat of Barcelona and Spain

Many have described Barcelona's 5-0 win over Real Madrid last November as the greatest performance ever. Even Wayne Rooney admits that he stood up in his living room and started applauding.

[Xavi's face lights up]. Yeah? Really? Rooney? That makes me proud. Rooney, wow! Rooney is extraordinary, he could play for Barcelona. And before people imagine headlines like "Xavi says Rooney to join Barcelona" – although, I'd love him to! – what I mean is that he's our kind of player. That game was wonderful, the best I've played. The feeling of superiority was incredible – and against Real Madrid! They didn't touch the ball. Madre mía, what a match! In the dressing room, we gave ourselves a standing ovation.
You mention Barcelona's dominance of possession. It's tempting to conclude that we've never seen a team with an identity – for better or worse – as clear as the current Barcelona and Spain teams. It's all about possession. And that's your identity – one that seems to have become dominant.
It's good that the reference point for world football right now is Barcelona, that it's Spain. Not because it's ours but because of what it is. Because it's an attacking football, it's not speculative, we don't wait. You pressure, you want possession, you want to attack. Some teams can't or don't pass the ball. What are you playing for? What's the point? That's not football. Combine, pass, play. That's football – for me, at least. For coaches, like, I don't know, [Javier] Clemente or [Fabio] Capello, there's another type of football. But it's good that Barcelona's style is now a model, not that.
But some claimed Spain were boring at the World Cup. You kept winning 1-0.
That's upside down. It's not that we were boring, it is the other team that was. What did Holland look for? Penalties. Or [Arjen] Robben on the break. Bam, bam, bam. Of course we were boring – the opposition made it that way. Paraguay? What did they do? Built a spectacularly good defensive system and waited for chances – from dead balls. Up it goes, rebound, loose ball. It's harder than people realise when you've got a guy behind you who's two metres tall and right on top of you.
So, what's the solution?
Think quickly, look for spaces. That's what I do: look for spaces. All day. I'm always looking. All day, all day. [Xavi starts gesturing as if he is looking around, swinging his head]. Here? No. There? No. People who haven't played don't always realise how hard that is. Space, space, space. It's like being on the PlayStation. I think shit, the defender's here, play it there. I see the space and pass. That's what I do.
That's at the heart of the Barcelona model and runs all the way through the club, doesn't it? When you beat Madrid, eight of the starting XI were youth-team products and all three finalists in this year's Ballon d'Or were too – Lionel Messi, Andrés Iniesta and you.
Some youth academies worry about winning, we worry about education. You see a kid who lifts his head up, who plays the pass first time, pum, and you think, 'Yep, he'll do.' Bring him in, coach him. Our model was imposed by [Johan] Cruyff; it's an Ajax model. It's all about rondos [piggy in the middle]. Rondo, rondo, rondo. Every. Single. Day. It's the best exercise there is. You learn responsibility and not to lose the ball. If you lose the ball, you go in the middle. Pum-pum-pum-pum, always one touch. If you go in the middle, it's humiliating, the rest applaud and laugh at you.
Your Barcelona team-mate Dani Alves said that you don't play to the run, you make the run by obliging team-mates to move into certain areas. "Xavi," he said, "plays in the future."
They make it easy. My football is passing but, wow, if I have Dani, Iniesta, Pedro, [David] Villa … there are so many options. Sometimes, I even think to myself: man, so-and-so is going to get annoyed because I've played three passes and haven't given him the ball yet. I'd better give the next one to Dani because he's gone up the wing three times. When Leo [Messi] doesn't get involved, it's like he gets annoyed … and the next pass is for him.
You're talking about style over success but not only can they go together, they have to go together, don't they? Arsenal play great football, Arsène Wenger is a hugely respected coach, but they've not won anything for years. Could that happen at Barcelona?
Almost impossible. If you go two years without winning, everything has to change. But you change names, not identity. The philosophy can't be lost. Our fans wouldn't understand a team that sat back and played on the break. Sadly, people only look at teams through success. Now, success has validated our approach. I'm happy because, from a selfish point of view, six years ago I was extinct; footballers like me were in danger of dying out. It was all: two metres tall, powerful, in the middle, knockdowns, second balls, rebounds … but now I see Arsenal and Villarreal and they play like us.
Do you see yourself as a defender of the faith? An ideologue?
It was that or die. I'm a romantic. I like the fact that talent, technical ability, is valued above physical condition now. I'm glad that's the priority; if it wasn't, there wouldn't be the same spectacle. Football is played to win but our satisfaction is double. Other teams win and they're happy, but it's not the same. The identity is lacking. The result is an impostor in football. You can do things really, really well – last year we were better than Inter Milan – but did not win. There's something greater than the result, more lasting. A legacy. Inter won the Champions League but no one talks about them. People discovered me since Euro 2008, but I've been playing the same way for years. It is true, though, that I have grown in confidence and tranquillity. And that comes with success.
Has English football suffered because it embraces a different footballing culture?
It has changed; the style's a bit more technical. But before it was direct, it was about the second ball, the typical No9 was a Crouch or a Heskey and there was no football. Carragher, boom, up top; Terry, boom, up top. I think it's changing: Barry, Lampard, Gerrard, Carrick … they are players who treat the ball well. You see them now and think, Christ, they are trying to play.
Is Paul Scholes the English Xavi?
[Xavi interrupts, almost bursting with enthusiasm] Paul Scholes! A role model. For me – and I really mean this – he's the best central midfielder I've seen in the last 15, 20 years. I've spoken to Xabi Alonso about him. He's spectacular, he has it all: the last pass, goals, he's strong, he doesn't lose the ball, vision. If he'd been Spanish he might have been rated more highly. Players love him.
England seems to mistrust technical players.
It's a pity. Talent has to be the priority. Technical ability. Always, always. Sure, you can win without it but it's talent that makes the difference. Look at the teams: Juventus, who makes the difference? Krasic. Del Piero. Liverpool? Gerrard, or Torres before. Talento. Talento. When you look at players and ask yourself who's the best: talento. Cesc, Nasri, Ryan Giggs – that guy is a joy, incredible. Looking back, I loved John Barnes and Chris Waddle was buenísimo. [Open-mouthed, eyes gleaming] Le Tissier! Although their style was different I liked Roy Keane and Paul Ince together, too. That United team was great – my English team. If I'd gone anywhere, it would have been there.
In England do we overrate physical players? You mention Carragher, Terry …
Whoa! Wait! Be careful. They're fundamental. We've got Puyol. Technically he might not be the best but it's incredible the way he defends. Carragher and Terry are necessary, brilliant, but they have to adapt to technical football [not the other way round]. For me, that comes naturally – or for Messi, Iniesta or Rooney. Others have to work at it. For them it's harder to lift their head up and play a pass – but they have to.
But when a player is offered to a club, the first question is: "how tall is he?"
Have you seen [the Villarreal winger] Santi Cazorla? You think I'm small, he's up to here on me [Xavi signals his chest]. And yet he's brilliant. Messi is the same and he's the best player in the world. Maybe it's the culture, I don't know, but in England you're warriors. You watch Liverpool and Carragher wins the ball and boots it into the stands and the fans applaud. There's a roar! They'd never applaud that here.
Next week you play Arsenal again in the Champions League last 16. Are they different? A kind of Barcelona-lite?
Arsenal are a great team. When I watch Arsenal, I see Barça. I see Cesc carry the game, Nasri, Arshavin. The difference between them and us is we have more players who think before they play, quicker. Education is the key. Players have had 10 or 12 years here. When you arrive at Barça the first thing they teach you is: think. Think, think, think. Quickly. [Xavi starts doing the actions, looking around himself.] Lift your head up, move, see, think. Look before you get the ball. If you're getting this pass, look to see if that guy is free. Pum. First time. Look at [Sergio] Busquets – the best midfielder there is playing one-touch. He doesn't need more. He controls, looks and passes in one touch. Some need two or three and, given how fast the game is, that's too slow. Alves, one touch. Iniesta, one touch. Messi, one touch. Piqué, one touch. Busi [Busquets], me … seven or eight players with one touch. Fast. In fact, [the youth coach] Charly [Rexach] always used to say: a mig toc. Half a touch.
Arsenal-Barcelona always provokes questions about Cesc Fábregas's future.
If I'd ever gone to another club, I'd have been thinking about Barcelona – the link is strong. The same is happening to him. But now there's a problem: now he's expensive. But I think that a footballer ends up playing where he wants. He has to end up here.
That's not what Arsenal fans want to hear and some have accused Barcelona players, you included, of stirring trouble. Last summer there were so many remarks supposedly coming out of Barcelona …
Really? I hardly spoke then. I imagine they wouldn't have liked that. [Xavi pauses, adding quietly, almost shamefacedly] You know, often footballers don't think. We're selfish, we don't realise. I also say it because I'm thinking of Cesc. He wants to come here. Barcelona has always been his dream. But of course he's Arsenal's captain, the standard bearer, a leader. This situation is a putada [bummer] for him. He's at a club that plays his style with Wenger who has treated him well, taught him, raised him. Cesc respects him. If he'd been at, say, Blackburn it might have been easier to leave. Look, the truth is: I want him to come here. Of course. Barcelona have a very clear style and not many footballers fit. It's not easy. But Cesc fits it perfectly.
Would he replace you, though?
I don't see new players as a threat; I don't say "this is my patch". I'm more: "bring them here, let them play". The more talent in the middle, the better. Four or five years ago [people said] me and Iniesta couldn't play together. We can't play together? Look how that one turned out.
Last year, you beat Arsenal comfortably …
Yes, but this year they're much better. I think it's a disadvantage for us that we played last year. They had [too] much respect for us. It was as if they let us have the ball; we always had it, home and away. The game in London could have been a 4-0 we dominated so much – but it finished 2-2. This year will be different.
What was your reaction to the draw?
I was happy. I like the fact that we'll see a great game. Arsenal aren't the kind of team that come to try to putear you [piss you off, break up the game, destroy the match]. If it was Chelsea, you might think Madre mía, they're going to leave the initiative to you, wait deep, close up, play on the break with Drogba and Malouda. But, no, I think Arsenal will want the ball. There will be more of a game. As a fan I'd definitely pay for a ticket to see this game. Manchester United or Chelsea would play in a more speculative way. They would leave us the ball. Arsenal won't.
Does English football attract you? Spanish players always return from there raving about it.
It's incredible. Una pasada. Now that is football. England really is the birthplace, the heart and soul of football. If Barcelona had Liverpool's fans, or Arsenal's, or United's, we'd have won 20 Champions Leagues, hahaha! OK, so that's an exaggeration but I've never seen anything like it. We won 3-1 at Liverpool once and we were both applauded off the pitch. In England, footballers are respected more, the game is more noble, there's less cheating. Every Spaniard who goes loves it – and comes back a better player. If I had ever left it would have been to England.
The final is at Wembley, which makes it even more special for Barcelona, doesn't it? Last year it was special because it was at the Bernabéu but Wembley is the scene of the Dream Team's one European Cup. And this feels like a year in which you are being constantly compared to them …
In 1992, I was 12 and my brothers went but my parents wouldn't let me. I was in tears but it made no difference. I'd love to play at Wembley. It's special for Barça – and for everyone in football. Last year was more morbosa [about the rivalry with Real Madrid, almost a little dirty, titillating]. This year is more nostalgic, more classic. And I'm more of a nostalgic. Me? I'm a romantic.
@Guardian
Photo : Solarpix.com

It Was A Kick In The Teeth At St Andrew's

The league leaders make a swift return to the Birmingham area this Saturday - New Year’s Day - when Sir Alex Ferguson’s men will visit West Bromwich Albion. Rio no doubt speaks for the squad when he hopes for a better outcome than Tuesday night and, indeed, than in the last meeting with the Baggies – 2-2 at Old Trafford in October.

“We should have got the three points at Birmingham but we'll be looking to the next game to make things right,” 

“I thought, on the whole, we deserved to win at St Andrew's. After battling with Birmingham in the first half, we started the second half quite brightly. We passed the ball about and got our noses in front with a great goal from Berba.

“But you want to shut games out like that and we didn't manage to do it. It was a kick in the teeth to concede the equaliser so late on.”

While dismayed by the modus operandi for Birmingham’s last-gasp leveller – “he (Nikola Zigic, the goal’s creator) even said at the end of the game he handled the ball” – Ferdinand respects the way United’s opponents approached the contest.

“They get right into you as you expect, understand and appreciate when you go to places like Birmingham and, of course, their fans get up for it," said Rio.

“It's what makes the Premier League such a great league to play in. You get a different set of tasks in front of you each week and you have to deal with them.”

The Reds must now deal with a wounded animal in West Brom – the Baggies lost both their Christmas matches, 0-2 at Bolton where they were arguably the better side and 1-3 at home to Blackburn. Victory for United at The Hawthorns seems almost vital as the title race continues to twist and turn with Manchester City and Arsenal now serious contenders, while Spurs have climbed above Chelsea into fourth spot.

“It's open for four or five teams to go and take it,” acknowledged Ferdinand. “We want to be the team that does just that.”

@manutd.com

Reds Eye Christmas No.1

Sir Alex Ferguson was keen to stress the importance of Monday night's 1-0 victory over Arsenal, as the Reds moved two points clear of the chasing pack with a game in hand.

United always aim to be top of the charts at Christmas and the Reds boss labelled next Sunday's visit to Stamford Bridge to take on ailing Chelsea as "massive", "a big, big game for United". But first, the Reds had to get past the Gunners.
"These games are important," stressed the boss. "Arsenal were top of the league and we were in third, so it was an important result for us.
"The game-plan was to stifle the midfield and to make sure we got possession of the ball in there. We did that well in the first half. We played very well and maybe we should have been further in front.
"In fairness, with the goal we did score, we deserved that. In the second half we had some great opportunities on the counter-attack, we were disappointed [not to make more of that]. Arsenal had more of the game in the second half without actually making many chances."
Ji-sung Park's looping head just before half time ensured a lead United's play had warranted. The Reds could have extended the advantage playing on the counterattack in the second 45 minutes when Nani won a penalty for Gael Clichy's handball. However, Rooney blasted the spot-kick over the bar.
"I'm surprised," said the boss. "He usually gets his shots on target. It was the complete opposite to the one he scored against Rangers, which was
low, hard and in the corner. Tonight he ballooned it over the bar.

"You always worry at 1-0. It's not a great score in a game like this. It only takes a second to lose one. But I thought our back four were fantastic. They were absolutely brilliant.
"[Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic] were tremendous. That gives you a great foundation, and 1-0 victories can win you the league. If my back four keep that foundation of not conceding any goals it gives us a really good chance."
They will need to be at their miserly best again next weekend. "It's a massive game now," added the boss. "That will go a long way to establishing the top of the league. It's a big, big game for United."

Moggi :"Inter Reduced To Smoking Rubble"

Inter have been reduced to smoking rubble, torched by Rafael Benitez who has destroyed an empire built by Jose Mourinho, and not even a new wave of Calciopoli will be enough to douse the flames, claims Luciano Moggi.

"Inter are finished. Their credit, obtained from Calciopoli has ran out," Moggi told Gold TV.
"And for sure [Massimo] Moratti caused it by replacing Mourinho with Benitez - the complete opposite.
"The team has turned from being a warship to a weak mob.
"To win again Moratti will probably need a new Calciopoli..."
And with Inter charred, if not completely burnt, Juventus, Milan and Roma will feed off the scraps.
"In Italy the team who has Zlatan Ibrahimovic always wins," Moggi added.
"I wonder if [Arrigo] Sacchi still thinks Milan made an error by signing him.
"As for Roma, they are out of the crisis and they have reaquired self-esteem. Now they can return to being great again.
"Juventus? They deserved to beat Genoa and are doing well, but thinking about the Scudetto would be an illusion for the fans."



 
@goal.com

Seeking Ruthlessness

United fans got their money’s worth in terms of tension and entertainment in the first few weeks of the season, didn’t they?
Aye, but they shouldn’t have had the drama at Everton or Fulham. At Craven Cottage we missed a penalty kick with three minutes to go, which would have made it 3-1 and put the game out of sight. We threw points away there. And then it was even worse at Everton, where we threw away two goals in injury time. That’s unthinkable.
Losing late goals isn’t something you associate with the Reds. Was it as baffling for you as it was for the supporters?
It’s not like us to concede goals like that. This team doesn’t kill sides off as well as they should – that’s an area where I'd like to see an improvement. At Goodison we had three or four chances at 3-1 to put the game out of sight, but we were wasteful and paid the price. That killer instinct just isn’t there at the moment and it’s something we need to develop. That said, we haven’t had a problem scoring goals – we got three against Liverpool, Everton and West Ham, two at Fulham, three in the Community Shield; we don’t have difficulty finding the net. What we’re not doing, though, is killing teams off.
How do you address that?
The lessons learned are always important and I have no doubt the players have taken these setbacks on board. They suffer just as much – if not more – than the rest of us. They’re the ones throwing the points away and they’re the ones who know fine well that they’re good enough to win this league. So they don’t want to let themselves down. During the match, those on the sidelines – the fans, myself and my staff –perhaps feel the frustration more, but after the game, and for the next day or two, it’s the players who continue to hurt. They don’t like feeling that way, so they’ll take steps to ensure they don’t keep making the same mistakes. All the very best professionals, in any sport in the world, need two things – consistency and concentration. Those attributes are vital to success.

Have we already reached a stage where we can’t afford to drop any more points?
No, no, no. Every team is going to drop points – that’s inevitable. If you look at Chelsea’s start to the season, you’d have expected them to have won all those games, so the position they’re in doesn’t surprise me. Meanwhile, we’ve had tricky trips to Fulham and Everton then played Liverpool at home. Those are difficult matches. Liverpool, Arsenal and ourselves have all played top sides early on – Chelsea’s sterner tests are still to come.
Antonio Valencia suffered a bad injury against Rangers. How do we compensate for his absence from the side?
It’s a loss to lose any player but Antonio was probably the most improved squad member over the last 12 months, so it was a big blow. The development we saw from when he signed for us to the present day has been amazing. We thought it would take a couple of years for him to reach this level, but he took to the challenge like a duck to water. However, we’ve got a strong squad and we’ll cope. It’s up to Nani now to play his part, and he has done superbly this season, so he’ll offer us width. Then there’s also Gabriel Obertan and the boy Bebe, who’s training very well. We’re not too bad – we’ve got options.
Do you learn as much about a player on a cold night in Scunthorpe as you do when they play at Old Trafford against Liverpool?
Absolutely. In the last few years we’ve done really well in the Carling Cup. But it’s not only the fact that we’ve had success. We’ve been to Scunthorpe this season and we went to Barnsley last year, and it’s in those sorts of environments you learn about your squad. We fielded a lot of young players in the Carling Cup last time out, and they acquitted themselves admirably. The competition has served us well; it allows me to keep everybody happy in terms of giving them games and we’ve reached the last two finals, which has its obvious advantages. Playing at Wembley and competing on the big stage is terrific for player development.
You can’t beat the experience of winning trophies, can you?
No, you can’t, but going out in the early rounds – like we did against Coventry and Southend a few years ago – are also good experiences. We always prefer to win, but I remember when Coventry came to Old Trafford and beat us in 2007. Our lads simply forgot it was a cup tie and the penalty for a poor performance was getting knocked out. Coventry were very hungry and you have to say they deserved to win. That was a big lesson and it helps us now.

@insideunited

Fielding A Dream

The Boston Red Sox completed one of the most storied seasons in baseball history in 2004 by coming back from a 3-0 deficit to defeat the New YorkYankees and then sweeping the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series to break a“curse” dating back to 1918. As he has done with his trading, owner John Henry has infused his long-term thinking into the Red Sox system. It goes far beyond bringing in a left-handed pitcher to face a left-handed batter, to include selecting the right players and the right tactics for situations based on probabilities.

Henry is actively involved in both JWH, his money management firm, and the

Red Sox, but gives much of the credit for success in both areas to outstanding staff members such as Mark Rzepczynski, president of JWH, who has been with the firm since 1998, and the front office team of the Red Sox.Here's CME journal's interesting interview with John W. Henry:

CME: First of all, congratulations on your success with the Red Sox. It’s an amazing story. A lot of Clubs fans in Chicago wish they could have some of that magic.

JWH: Yes, it was a gratifying year.

CME: Let’s get right into your trading career.What got you interested in trading futures in the first place?

JWH: My father and mother were farmers in Arkansas. When my father died in thelate 1970s, I decided that I needed to understand agricultural markets. So I spent a few years studying markets, game theory and probability. I was immediately fascinated with market movements. I retain the same fascination today.

CME: You have been described in The New York Times and elsewhere as “a cerebral man with a head for mathematics.” But how did you learn to trade futures – books,trial-and-error . . . ?

JWH: Early on I read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, the autobiography of Bernard Baruch, and the writing of W.D. Gann. I was particularly taken with Gann’s philosophy. I had been a student of philosophy and quickly began to find a bias toward trading philosophy over and above results. I always distrusted results in the commodity markets and eventually across all markets.Life is too dynamic to place a lot of credence in the past results of any program or any trader. I strongly felt that the key to success in markets over the very long term was in having a valid philosophy of the markets that could not be shaken by results over the short or intermediate term. I equated this with valid philosophies in other areas such as business principles that endure regardless of cycles. With any valid philosophy in any field, there are going to be periods in which doing the right thing every day appears to be counterproductive.

If Keynes said, “In the long run, we are all dead,” I would say, “Remaining true to your principles, if they are valid, will produce great results over the long run.”

CME: What were your early experiences in trading like? Did you start with big losses and then decide to figure out what trading was all about, as some well-known traders have done?

JWH: I started with a diversified portfolio called the “Original Program.” The first week of trading was in June of 1981. I was so confident in my research and philosophy that I left the country and left stops with my broker. After dinner one night in Oslo that first week, I saw a chart on the front page of the Financial Times. It was an amazing chart that showed the price of coffee had skyrocketed. I knew I was short.

I called my broker and he said, “You know, you are on to something. We’re limit up every day in coffee going against us, but we’ve made money every day you’ve been gone.”

CME: What markets did you trade in your early days?

JWH: Soybeans, 30-year U.S. bonds,gold, British pounds, Japanese yen,copper, wheat, sugar, coffee and cocoa at the very beginning.

CME: As you began to evolve as a trader, how did you develop your trend-following trading approach?

JWH: I did not have access to computers.PCs were just coming out. I didn’t have a desire to find the holy grail by testing different methodologies. I came up with a philosophy of very long-term trend-following. I knew the approach would be very profitable, but I also knew the nature of long-term trend-following is to have volatility.

CME: How has your basic approach changed over the years?

JWH: It hasn’t. Portfolios have changed as the markets have expanded. Programs have been added. But the basic philosophy is the same.

CME: How many different trading programs does JWH offer today?

JWH: JWH offers 11 different trading programs to investors. Our diversified portfolios are the Original Investment Program, Global Diversified Portfolio

and the Global Analytics Family of Programs. Our financial portfolios include the Financial and Metals Portfolio, Global Financial and Energy Portfolio and Worldwide Bond Program.

Our foreign exchange programs are the International Foreign Exchange Program, the G-7 Currency Portfolio and the Dollar Program. Additionally,we offer two trading programs that combine the others – the Strategic Allocation Program, which can invest in any of the other programs, and theCurrency Strategic Allocation Program,which limits itself to the foreignexchange-only programs.

CME: How do you “sell” your managed futures programs as an asset class to these clients?

JWH: The primary benefit of managed futures is the low historical correlation to traditional assets. Our programs have done especially well during periods of market stress or dislocation. This is when you have strong market trends. Our market selection and our investment methodology combine to give a return

stream that is unlike a traditional long only portfolio of equities and fixed income instruments.

CME: With the spectrum of instruments available, what is your view about trading futures instead of cash markets – specifically, in FX(Foreign Exchange)?

JWH: Futures offer a uniformity and transparency not found in many cash markets. That having been said, we have not been as active in FX futures markets. This is primarily due to the liquidity available in cash FX markets.Nevertheless, we have seen a significant increase in volume and liquidity at the CME from electronic trading. This is causing us to reevaluate our trading atthe CME, especially for any active trading program.

CME: What are the most significant changes that you have seen in futures trading and in managed futures since the early 1980s?

JWH: Electronic trading has been the most significant change in futures trading. It is so much easier to access the market and transact trades. The influx of competitors to the managed futures field has been significant to our industry. There are more managed futures managers and global macro managers who use futures as a means of diversification and profit opportunity.There also has been a shift of emphasis towards shorter time horizons for trading as a result of the decreasing execution costs. There is less emphasis on long-term trend-following, which is our specialty.

CME: What developments do you see coming in futures/options trading?

JWH: Technology’s emergence into a predominant position in our industry is something that is ongoing in our industry. Another development I see on the horizon is the return of markets that will look very different from the low-volatility situation to which many traders have become accustomed.

CME: What developments would you like to see in futures/options trading?

JWH: We are constantly looking for new markets to trade. With developments in electronics, the cost of entering new futures markets is much lower. We hope to see new products at CME.We also look forward to new market participants in futures trading. This clearly adds to liquidity,which is good for everyone.

CME: In view of your baseball success in addition to your trading success, we have to ask a couple of baseball questions.What was your baseball background as a player or coach?

JWH: I played second base in Little League. I set a strikeout record at the Chicago White Sox Boys Camp in 1960…as a hitter !

CME: What prompted you to get into baseball ownership?

JWH: The investment business can be very insular. Owning a baseball team deeply connects you to important aspects of a community. And if you are a sports fan, there can be no greater dream than to own a team and become a participant. Of course, I don’t make player decisions.I’m not qualified to run a baseball team. So I am fortunate to have a brilliant general manager and a tremendous CEO.

Buying the Red Sox and winning a World Series with great partners was a storybook opportunity and a great accomplishment for an organization that had come so close over many decades. I owned part of the Yankees for a decade, so I knew exactly what we were up against. It’s the greatest rivalry in sports. Being a lifetime baseball fan and having a great love for markets, I’m incredibly lucky to have the Red Sox and JWH.

CME: With such success in two diverse areas, what relationship do you see between successful trading and putting together a successful baseball team?

JWH: There are a number of dissimilarities that people don’t want to hear about. But there are a few principles that guide both the Red Sox and JWH.It’s important to have a plan, remain disciplined in executing that plan and pay attention to what is actually happening rather than what you expect to happen. We try to be as objective as possible in our analyses. I’m a stickler for that. Some may see objectivity as

impossible. But that’s why systematic approaches make sense. It’s not always easy for people who are involved every day to stay with a plan when misfortune occurs for a time.You always encounter the unexpected, and this can push discipline right out of the way in the name of prudence. But prudence almost always dictates staying with the approach that has made you successful. I see that as one of my primary roles. I often encourage everyone during difficult days to be patient.I don’t blame people for the unexpected.

Every time JWH struggles – and that is usually annually – people ask if the markets have changed. I always say,“Yes, the markets have changed. That is the nature of markets, and that is why we have been successful over the long term.The nature of trend-following is to adjust to changing market conditions.”

Agnelli : All expected

It was the first management meeting which was held at the construction site of the new stadium, in the offices of the works directors and was the opportunity to show the board members the state of the works. 

Andrea Agnelli, at the end of the management meeting met the journalists: «Here you are seeing the Juve of the future – said the President - . Today we visited the construction site together with the board members. We can say that this is the first day in the life of the new stadium, an avant-garde stadium, on the level of the main European teams, open 7 days a week. In Italy we are the first club to reach such an objective». 

The President then spoke of football: «The present situation is how I expected it to be. We knew some time would be necessary, a few months are needed for the sports project to take off. The squad is not under discussion. We based ourselves on young players and therefore it is normal that they have less experience but we must give them time». 

Agnelli has no doubts with regards to what the team needs to find: «The team is conscious of the quality  and must simply find consistency. There is harmony. It can be seen that a group is being created. This can be understood from many things, including the fact that even yesterday the team fought till the very end and then went towards the stands to receive the applause of the supporters: it is a sign that they want to return to being Juve». The final comment is dedicated to the supporters:  «They understood what has been done in recent months, they understand that the lads are living through a transformation and must amalgamate besides seeing that they are running on the field».

sunn 0))) - "It’s like an onion, man, all the layers and shit." | INTERVIEWS | Tiny Mix Tapes

sunn 0))) - "It’s like an onion, man, all the layers and shit." | INTERVIEWS | Tiny Mix Tapes